Has the Chancellor gone far enough to help the economy and save jobs?

Sunak’s Summer Economic Statement followed on neatly from the previous week’s announcement from the prime minister, Boris Johnson.

Johnson’s mantra of ‘build, build, build’ offered nothing new to the Tory manifesto plans for the UK economy, rather an acceleration of previous plans to build a sustainable and green UK infrastructure generating green jobs.

Sunak’s statement dovetailed nicely with Johnson’s speech, which set out a ‘plan for jobs’ for a green recovery, explicitly noting a move away from the government subsidised Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme supporting 1.4 million jobs currently in the UK and asking us to look into the uncertain future with hope and renewal.

This may sound a bit wishy washy for a chancellor of the exchequer, especially a Tory one, but it seems to be working for Rishi Sunak. He delivers his speeches with gravity, poise and more often than not, loud cheers from his supporters in the benches. I have to admit myself, after each speech which coincidentally has only ever been delivered during emotional COVID-19 times, I have been so impressed that I have had to stop myself getting on my feet and cheering. Then of course I remember, the devil is in the detail.

Short termism or realistic?

Who has a crystal ball that can look into the future?

No politician or economist has ever had one but the predictability of supply and demand, bull and bear markets, have been close enough to reach to, explain the ups and downs of our economy and provide a comfort blanket. All things that fall, must rise again.

But clearly we are living in unusual times to say the least, and even the Chancellor does not know what he plans to deliver in his budget in the Autumn. Who knows what the UK economy or the public health of the country will look like 3 months down the line?

Nonetheless, it was disappointing to hear of no plans for long-term recovery or thoughts on how to address the growing crater of the UK’s finances. Mr Sunak said it himself - we are approaching the full impact of the worst economic recession in modern times, with unemployment numbers expected to top 4 million by the Autumn. Difficult times lie ahead. Continuing on a spending spree over the summer to save as many jobs as possible might make some difference to the job numbers by Autumn time and perhaps beyond for larger companies who will see the most benefits from the Coronavirus Job Retention Bonus Scheme, but it completely ignores the fact that we are still in the middle of a pandemic.

The emphasis on green jobs was, however, aspirational. Seeking to be innovative and forcing us to face the fact that many of the jobs that have been lost due to the virus will no longer exist, it’s a hard pill to swallow. But in its place, something new, green and sustainable, fit for the future.

What will the Autumn Budget bring?

Will we see more spending and economic support to prop up the economy or will there be the anticipated tax cuts, which were rumoured to happen at the Chancellor’s speech, but never transpired?

This could be viewed as the perfect time for the chancellor to re-design the economy, to protect it from future shocks, such as the ongoing threat of this pandemic and potentially more in the future, as well as climate change.

But can we green build our way out of the recession as Johnson suggests and create new green jobs as Sunak suggests? Raising taxes may stunt the economy further, limiting our spending power and demoralising an already frightened public, scared for their health and jobs. But do we continue to print money to keep the economy moving and face the dire consequences later?

There is no doubt that at some point tax rises or spending cuts will have to happen in the UK to make up for the huge amount of government economic support propping up jobs, particularly hard hit sectors and industries, and the wider economy.

But timing will be key and it remains to be seen if Mr Rishi Sunak, our impressive, dynamic Chancellor, can get us through it.

Get your popcorn ready, the Autumn Budget is going to be a corker.